Climate Change Impacts

From reading the IPCC Regional Climate Projections first of all it is very likely that all regions of Africa are going to see an increase in temperature and in a greater amount than the rest of the globe.  It is also projected that the annual rainfall will most likely decrease and in places such as the Mediterranean and the northern Sahara will become drier.  On the other hand there is a high likelihood that there will be an increase of precipitation in East Africa.  At this time they are unsure of the tropical cyclone predictions that affect Africa and if they will be more frequent and/or increase in intensity.  In general it seems as though there will be shifts in the precipitation distribution around Africa as temperature continues to rise at a high rate.  

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and it is predicted that between 75 and 250 million people will be affected by the water stress that might occur.  This includes the use of water for the production of food as there is less precipitation decreasing the production of rain-fed agriculture to up to 50%.  This will lead to the increase malnutrition in the country as food will be harder to grow.  Another prediction is that by the end of the 21^st century, sea levels will rise and destroy communities living in the coastal areas.  Not only this but the mangroves and coral reefs will also suffer and add more negative effects for fisheries and tourism.  

As stated previously, “Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability” even though farmers had tried different methods to cope with the situation it may not be enough as the growing season will decrease drastically and places which do not currently experience water stress will.  One of the major factors that climate change will bring is additional water stress and decrease in water availability in Africa, many areas already have a shortage of water but this will increase with the change in climate.  Human health may also be negatively impacted as the transmission of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, meningitis, cholera etc. can change.  

I think that health is the most interesting threat because it directly affects the people and is something that gets others to listen about climate change.  With the climate change it will bring continued malnutrition to Africa as it will become more and more difficult to grow crops as the growing days decrease.  Another thing is the spread of disease, especially malaria.  If the climate changes it can possibly grow to an environment that is good condition to spread these diseases and it would be devastating in a place that is already so susceptible to it.  This disease spread and malnutrition will affect millions of people living in Africa and if something is not done about it, the number of people affected will continue to increase.  

"Figure 9.1. Examples of current ‘hotspots’ or risk areas for Africa: (a) ‘hunger’; (b) ‘natural hazard-related disaster risks’; (c) regions prone to malaria derived from historical rainfall and temperature data (1950-1996); and (d) modelled distribution of districts where epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are likely to occur, based on epidemic experience, relative humidity (1961-1990) and land cover (adapted from IRI et al., 2006, p. 5; for further details see also Molesworth et al., 2003; Balk et al., 2005; Dilley et al., 2005; Center for International Earth Science Information Network, 2006; Connor et al., 2006)." 

Source:http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch9s9-2-1-2.html

"Figure 11.1. Temperature anomalies with respect to 1901 to 1950 for four African land regions for 1906 to 2005 (black line) and as simulated (red envelope) by MMD models incorporating known forcings; and as projected for 2001 to 2100 by MMD models for the A1B scenario (orange envelope). The bars at the end of the orange envelope represent the range of projected changes for 2091 to 2100 for the B1 scenario (blue), the A1B scenario (orange) and the A2 scenario (red). The black line is dashed where observations are present for less than 50% of the area in the decade concerned. More details on the construction of these figures are given in Box 11.1 and Section 11.1.2."

:Figure 11.2. Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa from the MMD-A1B simulations. Top row: Annual mean, DJF and JJA temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models. Middle row: same as top, but for fractional change in precipitation. Bottom row: number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitation."

Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-2-3.html

Severe Weather in South Africa

Tornadoes:

A tornado is a low pressure system that is spinning at a very fast speed.  Tornadoes are formed in three steps, first a rotating body of air forms on the ground because of wind sheer, second horizontal rotating air is lifted off the ground by the updraft of a thunderstorm.  When the horizontally rotating air mass is lifted vertically it is considered a mesocyclone.  And finally, this mesocyclone is fully developed in the updraft of a thunderstorm meaning the tornado will come from the slowly rotating “wall cloud” in the lower part of the cloud.  

In the US tornadoes usually travel Northeast but this si not true for the entire world.  Tornadoes do not travel in the same direction in different regions of the world because of the different conditions and air that changes with location.  So the winds and conditions that occur in the US will not be the same in South Africa.  

The average number of Hurricanes that occur in the US is about 1,253 on the other hand South Africa does not experience hurricanes every year and they occur only once in a while about 0.4 times per year.  

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html

Hurricanes:

Hurricanes are also very low pressure systems and are considered the "greatest" storms on earth.  The three main requirements for hurricane formation are 1.  Warm ocean temperatures over 80 degrees F because lots of evaporation is needed.  This is why hurricanes are created equator-ward 20 degrees north and south.  The second thing that is needed is a deep warm ocean layer about 200 meters in depth.  This is so that when being mixed, the water will still be warm.  The final requirement is Coriolis as it is needed to initiate the spinning of the hurricane, this is why hurricanes start between 5 degrees north and south.  

In different regions hurricanes have different names, in the Atlantic and East pacific they are called Hurricanes, in the Indian Ocean near Australia, they are called Cyclones and off the coast of China and Indonesia, they are called Typhoons.  

http://www.learnnc.org/lp/editions/nchist-recent/6248

As seen in the picture above, hurricanes around the US usually travel in a "c" shape and this is because of the winds.  The westerlies push the hurricane out and they dissipate when the reach colder waters.  

Hurricanes have hit South Africa before but it is not a frequent occurrence because it is a little far from the equator and does not have the perfect conditions but when they do happen, they do not go in the same direction because South Africa is located in the southern hemisphere so the winds like the westerlies go in the opposite direction curving the general path of hurricanes downward.  When comparing the average of 4 hurricanes that his the US every year, hurricanes only hit South Africa once in a great while.  

Geographic Location and Comparison to US:

South Africa is located at 29 degrees south latitude and 24 degrees East longitude.  It is also surrounded by two oceans the Indian Ocean, and the South Atlantic ocean.  In South Africa tornadoes can occur, but definitely not as often as the occurrences in the US.  Also, since South Africa is located in the Southern Hemisphere so hurricane season is opposite.  Hurricanes on the other hand do no affect South Africa very often as they are only affected once in a very great while.  This could be because waters near South Africa are too far from the equator and therefore too cold.  

Typical Weather and Tourism in South Africa

South Africa’s winter solstice occurs on June 21.  During June the maximum average temperature is 67 F while the minimum average temperature is 45 F.  While it does get quite cold during the night, snow only lightly falls in the higher altitude mountains. Some cities have their rainy season during the winter and the average precipitation during June is about 3.5 inches.  South Africa is a great place to visit during the winter to get away from the hot summer temperatures of the northern hemisphere.  With its cold but sunny atmosphere it’s a great time to take a vacation. 

The summer solstice in South Africa occurs on December 21.  With the average maximum temperature of 75 F and the average minimum of 57 F and an average precipitation of 0.4 inches, it’s a great time to visit a safari.  Although the temperature does not appear to be high, it can get quite humid in some areas, but as you travel inland the temperatures decrease.  In some areas storms are quite common in the summer and are beautiful sights, but be careful of strong winds that sometimes have the power to pick up people off their feet!

During the spring Equinox on September 22 there is a possibility of rain as the average monthly precipitation for this month is 1.7 inches.  The temperatures are also similar to winter solstice temperatures with an average maximum temperature of 64 F and an average minimum temperature of 48 F.  As we have seen, the weather does not vary drastically from winter to spring and therefore these two seasons share much of their characteristics.  The only difference being that there is considerably less rainfall in the spring.  The western and northern capes are popular destinations for the locals to see the many beautiful flowers that bloom in the spring. 

Last but not least we have the Autumnal Equinox which occurs on March 20.  March is a great time to visit as some of the best weather occurs all around South Africa.  There is little rainfall with an average precipitation of 0.7 inches and average temperatures ranging from 77 F to 57 F.  It is warm during the beginning of autumn from the continuation of summer but gets cooler as winter approaches.  Cape Town is the number one place to visit in South Africa when visiting during the autumn. 

When thinking of what season to visit South Africa, spring should be one of your considerations.  Spring is a great season to visit as it is not as hot as summer but outdoor activities, that might not be comfortable in the winter are also possible.  Some of the most popular attractions include going on a safari, where you can see animals including buffalo, elephants, lions, leopards, and rhinos all in their natural habitats.  The Cradle of Humankind, a high-tech visitor attraction that holds the secrets of the origins of humankind.  The Wine Routes located in the Western Cape showcases South Africa’s unique winemaking centers.  All of these are great options not even including seeing the beautiful flowers in the Western and Northern Capes, a highlight of the spring.  Spring is also great because there is little rainfall and the thunderstorms and strong winds of the summer are usually over.  There is so much to do in this small country of South Africa but a once in a lifetime opportunity to experience the beauty of nature on our planet while vacationing in comfort.  

Sources: 

goafrica.about.com

www.southafrica.net

Picture from: www.prweb.com